Since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that saw the BJP-led NDA return to power for a third consecutive term at the Centre, the BJP has not only cemented its position in Parliament with the help of its key allies, but has also extended its lead over its rivals in the state Assemblies across the country.
Amid the ongoing rebel crisis in the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC), the BJP is poised to further solidify its standing in Parliament and see its primary Opposition diminished in West Bengal, a state that until recently had electorally eluded the BJP since its inception.
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An analysis of the Assembly strength of the parties between the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and now shows that the BJP went from having 37.16% of India’s total 4,123 MLAs to 43.97% after the recent Assembly elections. The NDA similarly grew from having 50.84% of all MLAs in 2024 to 61.36% now after resounding wins in the West Bengal and Assam Assembly elections.
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Across all 31 states and Union Territories with Legislative Assemblies, the BJP now has 1,813 MLAs, up from 1,532 after the 2024 general elections. The NDA, meanwhile, is up from 2,096 to 2,530 MLAs over the same period.
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As the BJP and NDA grew its footprint across the country, the Opposition parties and the INDIA bloc have seen their standings diminish in election after election.
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After the 2024 general elections, while the INDIA bloc had 1,603 MLAs (or 38.88% of the total), unaligned parties had 321 MLAs (or 7.79%). Over the past two years, however, the INDIA bloc has dropped to 1,011 MLAs (or 24.52% of the total) – a decline that has not only stemmed from poor electoral performances but also fractures in the bloc that has seen the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and, most recently, the M K Stalin-led DMK quit the Opposition alliance. The number of unaligned MLAs, however, has grown over the last two years to 563 or 13.66%.
Since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, there have been 11 Assembly elections, over the course of which the BJP has gained 281 MLAs, while its NDA allies like Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Shiv Sena rose by 36, 20 and 19 MLAs respectively.
In contrast, among the Opposition parties, while the Congress lost 18 MLAs in the same period, parties like the DMK, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and AAP fell by 75, 51 and 37 MLAs respectively.