Jason Sutherland: Trump’s tariffs would upend Canadian health care

It is widely known that U.S. President Donald Trump has been threatening widespread tariffs on Canadian products and services, and that this would have devastating economic repercussions for many Canadians.

But what has yet to be part of the national conversation is the impact tariffs would have on our health system. And what we should do to prepare for such an outcome.

Winston Churchill’s saying, “Never let a good crisis go to waste,” is particularly apt. Canadians may see a crisis unfold in our commitment to sustain quality universal health care through a prolonged trade war. We should use such a crisis, should it arise, to open the door to new solutions.

What’s the connection between tariffs and our health system?

Economists have noted that a possible depression induced by tariffs would cause many Canadians to lose their jobs. Add to this the ripple effect of businesses going bankrupt because they rely on these Canadian consumers to survive. If tariffs stay in place for an extended period, widespread unemployment plus business bankruptcies would cause a precipitous drop in federal and provincial tax revenues.

Provincial spending on health care is already almost 50 per cent of all money spent by provincial governments. That always makes health care a prime target for governments trying to reduce their spending — something that would be exacerbated in a tariff-induced depression.

Yet provincial governments would have a difficult time finding ways to save money on health care as it is organized and delivered today.

Canada has more seniors than ever, Canadians are living longer with more medical problems, and recent population growth will continue to drive immense public pressure for ever more health care. Governments in many provinces are also bound to multi-year wage increases for nurses and physician payments that in part redress recent high inflation.

And if a depression takes hold, hundreds of thousands of Canadians could also lose extended health benefits related to their place of employment, including insurance for dental and vision health, access to mental health care and coverage for prescribed drugs. Some Canadians would be forced to defer or forgo their and their families’ health needs. In some instances, this could lead to avoidable emergency department visits and hospitalizations that further crowd acute care.