Brighton face test to force its way into Champions League conversation

Hands up anyone who had Manchester City vs. Brighton as the biggest game in March?

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After this weekend’s games there’s an international break and then just nine game remain until the end of the season.

Liverpool, who are licking their wounds after being knocked out of the Champions League and face Newcastle in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday, look to have the league wrapped up.

Looking at the scramble to get into the top four to qualify for next season’s Champions League, this is a momentous weekend for Brighton.

They’re in seventh at the moment, but Newcastle (6th) don’t play this weekend. City (5th) are just one point ahead of Brighton and Chelsea, who play Arsenal this weekend, are two points ahead in the last qualification spot.

Brighton have climbed the table because they’ve largely avoided draws. Aside from a two-match wobble in late January where they lost to Everton and then Nottingham Forest, they’ve won four in a row and six of the last eight.

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Manchester City, meanwhile, have alternated wins and losses in their last six games and are coming off another disappointing loss, 1-0, to Nottingham Forest.

It’s a real fight to get back into the lucrative Champions League and manager Pep Guardiola was asked about missing qualification and rather than assure supporters he said: “We have to play better. We have to do something, it (Champions League qualification) will not come from the sky. Of course, the situation is what it is. Ten games left, Saturday against Brighton and after we will see what happens.”

Brighton really needs to win this game as City’s run-in is quite soft. The rest of their schedule is Leicester, Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Everton, Aston Villa, Wolves, Southampton, Bournemouth and Fulham. None of those teams are above 8th in the table, and none of them are above City themselves.

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Brighton still have to face Villa, Newcastle and Liverpool who are all above them.

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Last shot

The Gunners, let’s face it, are all but out of the title race after dropping seven points to Liverpool with a loss and two draws in the last three games.

If they are to hold out any hope at all it would be that Liverpool plunges into crisis after getting knocked out of the Champions League in a penalty shootout versus Paris St. Germain. The loss was even more costly as they saw Trent Alexander-Arnold go down with a rolled ankle. Alexander-Arnold’s backups, Joe Gomez and Connor Bradley, are both out long-term, and fourth on the depth chart is converted centre back Jarrell Quansah.

The problem is compounded with centre back Ibrahima Konate also leaving the game injured, so Quansah can’t fill in at centre back, likely the only option is to move defensive midfielder Wataru Endo into defence with Quansah playing on the right.

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That’s great news for Newcastle, who plays Liverpool on Sunday in a Cup final, trying to win their first trophy in 70 years.

Should Liverpool lose a Cup final on the heels of being knocked out of the Champions League in the midst of an injury crisis, would it open the door for Arsenal?

Well, the Gunners would have to pretty much run the table and hope Liverpool lose five of their last nine games having only lost one game this season.

It starts with this weekend. Arsenal are currently 15 points back but have a game in hand and that’s Sunday. They have to beat Chelsea. Not only to keep a glimmer of hope alive to still run down the Reds, but should Chelsea win they would close the gap on Arsenal to three points and all of a sudden staying in that top four would start to look a little more nervy for the Gunners.

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They’d still be in with a good shout, but beating Chelsea this weekend would all but shut the door on them being caught by three teams below them.

The issue for Arsenal remains scoring. They’ve scored just once in their last three games. Contrast that with Liverpool who have scored at least two goals in their last nine games, the last time they didn’t pot twice was a 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest in January, and that was the only time they’ve been held to a single goal in their last 22 league matches.

Scoring goals matters, clearly, and Arsenal are paying dearly for ignoring the striker position in the last three transfer windows.

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Final destination

The Cup final between Liverpool and Newcastle is increasingly looking like a fascinating matchup. Liverpool, defending champions from last year, looked to be significant favourites before the midweek loss to PSG.

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Their injuries will indeed be costly, but will there be an emotional hangover to being dumped out of the big tournament too? In truth Liverpool haven’t looked great lately struggling to beat Southampton and Wolves, perhaps the demands of the season and new manager Arne Slot’s reluctance to rotate his squad and relying on the same players over and over is coming home to roost.

The best they’ve looked in the last month though was the 2-0 win over Newcastle at Anfield on February 26. The Magpies will be hoping to have striker Alexander Isak back, especially with such a wounded Liverpool back line, but they’re missing their own centre back Sven Botman and forward Anthony Gordon, a Liverpool lad, due to suspension.

Both sets of fans will travel to Wembley in droves and the atmosphere will be electric. As stated, Newcastle have been waiting seven decades to get their hands on any trophy, while Liverpool look to add to their English record of 51 major honours, including winning the Carabao Cup (previously the League Cup) a record 10 times.

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Win or lose it will be a curious close to the season for Liverpool. With the league championship a near-certainty, to equal Manchester United as the top title winner with their 20th crown as Champions of England, and having been eliminated from the Champions League and FA Cup the remainder of the season will mean little for the Reds who’ll have plenty of time to plan their parade and party once they get over the finish line.

Saturday: Everton vs West Ham; Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest; Manchester City vs Brighton; Southampton vs Wolves; Bournemouth vs Brentford.
Sunday: Arsenal vs Chelsea; Fulham vs Tottenham; Leicester vs Manchester United.

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