Doug Ford’s 401 tunnel feasibility study could take two years: internal documents

A feasibility study to build an express tunnel under Highway 401 could take up to two years, Global News has learned, as the Ford government prepares to tender a contract to investigate the potential cost and viability of the project.

In the fall of 2024, Premier Doug Ford announced his government would look into constructing a traffic-transit tunnel under a 50-kilometre stretch of the congested highway to address the economic cost of gridlock in Toronto.

While the government has offered few other details on the potential project, including estimated costs, the Progressive Conservative Party committed to building the massive infrastructure project during the recent provincial election.

The details were included in a January 2025 document called “401 tunnel feasibility and gridlock relief plan.”

The government document states that by 2051, the average drive time along the 401 between Highway 427 and Highway 404 will double from the current average of 22 minutes to 44 minutes. Those numbers are identical to a similar assessment from 2022.

In order to ease the gridlock, engineering firms are being asked to consider an east-west tunnel “from west of Highway 410 in Mississauga to east of Scarborough,” and to determine the impact of construction on the already backed-up highway.

Here’s what the Ford government is looking for:

• Analysis of a tunneling option to add vehicle and transit capacity
• Consideration of other infrastructure options, including elevated highways and adjacent routing
• High-level cost estimates and economic analysis
• Design, environmental and construction considerations

The study, according to the internal document, “is expected to take up to two years.”

Matti Siemiatycki, director of the Infrastructure Institute at the University of Toronto, cautioned that the two-year study could cost millions but won’t solve the current congestion issues.

“We’re talking about congestion that’s becoming really problematic today and it’s been for many years,” Siemiatycki said. “A two-year study to try to get a handle on a 20-year project is not bringing anyone relief immediately.

“This is a multi-decade-long project,” Siemiatycki added. “When we’re talking about building a highway of this scale, and that will lead to increased traffic and ultimately not solve the problem over the long term, there are questions.”

The planning document also reveals that the province is hedging its bets against what Premier Ford has acknowledged is an “ambitious project.”

The internal government presentation states that while there are “few opportunities to expand highway capacity without undertaking major tunnel or fly-over infrastructure options,” the feasibility study will also look at alternative routes and other modes of travel.

Firms are being asked to conduct a comprehensive assessment of “other vehicle and transit capacity options” and to also identify other “complementary congestion relief options.”

Shoshana Saxe, an associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Toronto, applauded the focus on a diverse range of options but added that the Premier’s preferred option “is very expensive and very slow.”

“Technically, it’s possible. We can build very, very big tunnels, but it’s not going to work or deliver while we’re still in our working careers,” Saxe added.

Saxe said the feasibility study could result in traffic diversion methods, including dedicated high-occupancy vehicle or dedicated transit lanes of offer other suggestions to reduce the number of vehicles on the 401.

“I think the question is how do consultants answer this, what kind of advice do engineering firms give, and how open is the government ultimately to hearing those different ideas, even if they end up being a little different than what the Premier has said so far,” Saxe said.

The answer might lie in the document itself, which states the purpose of the request-for-proposal on the 401 tunnel as: “To deliver on the desired outcomes outlined by the Premier.”