With a 20-point lead over his closest rival, Ford’s snap election, called amidst a trade war with the U.S., seems to have been an effective gamble
With a 20-point lead over his closest rival, Ford’s snap election, called amidst a trade war with the U.S., seems to have been an effective gamble
With a little more than a week to go until election day, the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario holds a commanding 20-point lead over its nearest rival party.
A new Postmedia-Leger poll shows 48 per cent of Ontarians would cast a ballot for Doug Ford’s PCs, while 28 per cent would vote for Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals. Just 16 per cent say they will vote for the New Democrats led by Marit Stiles.
. The original election date was to be in June 2026.
Eighteen per cent of Ontarians say their impressions of Ford have improved since the start of the election and 16 per cent of Ontarians say the same thing about Crombie.
“In the snap election, in these unprecedented times, we’ve seen Ford’s lead already,” said Jennifer McLeod Macey, senior vice-president, public affairs, with Leger. “This really cements it.”
While 36 per cent say their impression of Ford has worsened over the course of the election campaign, he remains the leader that large minorities of Ontarians trust most to handle the issues facing the province. Ford’s significant presence when it comes to dealing with the United States may have changed the trajectory of this election.
More than three times as many Ontarians (45 per cent) say they trust Ford to protect against U.S. aggression compared to the 13 per cent who say the same of Crombie.
“His response to that has really made him stand out, and maybe what would have happened in a snap election in other times would have been a different story,” said McLeod Macey.
Thirty-seven per cent of Ontarians identify Ford as the politician they trust most to grow the economy, compared to 16 per cent who say they most trust Crombie, and nine per cent who chose Stiles.
While Ford struggles on other fronts — he barely has the edge on Crombie on health care and education — he also enjoys significant leads on criminal justice and dealing with gridlock on Ontario’s streets.
For Ontario voters, the single biggest issue going into the election is the cost of living, at 22 per cent, followed by trade with the United States at 11 per cent, which is tied with housing affordability. Other classic campaign issues, such as health care, education, public safety and climate change are priority issues for single-digit percentages of Ontarians, the polling shows.
“We do see that in tough economic times that social issues do decline. That particularly tends to be the case with things like climate change, the environment,” said McLeod Macey.
Overall, 33 per cent of Ontarians say they are satisfied with Ford’s tenure as premier and will vote for him again. He was first elected in 2018. Thirty-six per cent, however, say they are dissatisfied and will vote for another party this time around.
There is one other wildcard at play: those who are unsure. Twelve per cent of those polled say they aren’t sure who they’ll vote for.
“So one thing I’m curious to see is what voter turnout will be on the day,” said McLeod Macey.
The PC’s popularity is strongest in the Greater Toronto Area, with 58 per cent of Ontarians in that region saying they are leaning towards voting for Ford’s party. At 40 per cent, the party’s support is lowest in the northern part of the province. Crombie’s Liberals are at their most popular in Metro Toronto, with 32-per-cent support, although this is still dwarfed by the 42 per cent in that area who say they’ll be voting PC.
The NDP does best in the province’s north, where 26 per cent say they’ll cast a ballot for the party.
Ford’s PCs are most popular, at 53 per cent, with those aged 55 and older. The party struggles comparatively among the younger cohort: 38 per cent of those between the ages of 18 and 34 say they will be voting PC.
That said, the PCs still have a fairly commanding lead across all age demographics. The Ontario Liberals have the support of 32 per cent of 18-to-34-year-olds, but that’s still six points behind the PCs.
The polling was done between Feb. 14 and 16 using an online survey of 1,002 Ontario adults. The results have been weighted to ensure a representative sample of Ontario households. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 3.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20.